# The Taliban's Surprisingly Stable Five Years in Power Are Getting Harder

> Five years after retaking Kabul, the Taliban have held on through repression, a resilient economy, and quiet diplomatic acceptance, but a new armed resistance movement, a resurgent IS-K, and rising tension with Pakistan are testing that stability.

- Source: Foreign Time
- Canonical URL: https://foreigntime.com/article/taliban-afghanistan-five-years-stability-under-threat
- Author: Foreign Time Newsroom
- Section: Security
- Published: 2026-08-21T15:33:52.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-21T15:33:52.000Z
- Tags: Security, Afghanistan, Taliban, Pakistan, IS-K

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Five years after the Taliban swept back into Kabul as U.S. forces withdrew, the group has proven more durable than most observers expected, according to Foreign Policy South Asia Brief writer Michael Kugelman. The Taliban remain globally isolated and sanctioned, recognized as Afghanistan's government only by Russia, and widely condemned for their treatment of women and girls. But Kugelman argues that on the narrower question of holding power, the group has managed a level of stability, achieved through repression, that now looks increasingly fragile.

That stability has rested on four pillars, per the analysis. The Taliban have faced no serious threat to their political survival, with periodic attacks from Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) mostly reinforcing the group's claim to be the only alternative to something worse. Security has measurably improved by some counts: Afghanistan has not been at war since August 2021 after four decades of conflict, and terrorist attacks have declined following Taliban offensives against IS-K, even as the country remains dangerous for women, religious minorities, and dissidents. The economy has also outperformed expectations, with the World Bank estimating close to 5 percent real GDP growth this year. And diplomatically, the Taliban are isolated but not pariahs: nearly 20 countries maintain a diplomatic presence in Kabul, Taliban officials sit in posts across Asian capitals, Western governments including the United States have held periodic meetings with the group, and Taliban representatives were invited to the 2024 U.N. climate summit.

Kugelman writes that the next five years look considerably harder. Earlier this month, Sami Sadat, a former senior military officer from the pre-Taliban government, announced a new armed campaign against the Taliban through a movement called the Afghanistan United Front. The analysis notes Sadat's movement will struggle without external sponsorship, but that continued economic shocks could worsen living conditions enough to boost recruitment to the resistance. IS-K, meanwhile, remains resilient: a grenade attack this week near a school in a Kabul neighborhood with a large Hazara population, a Shiite minority frequently targeted by the group, is cited as a reminder that it could resurge.

The other pressure point is Pakistan, the Taliban's onetime sponsor. Islamabad accuses the Taliban of sheltering anti-Pakistan militants, and the relationship has deteriorated to the point that Kugelman flags the risk of the tension exploding into open conflict. He adds that mounting external pressure could also aggravate factional divides inside the Taliban's own ranks, which have flared before. Taken together, the piece frames Afghanistan's next chapter as a test of whether a movement built for insurgency, and stabilized mainly through force, can hold together once the threats it faces stop being so easily cast as worse alternatives to itself.

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Originally published by Foreign Time. Free to cite with attribution and a link to https://foreigntime.com/article/taliban-afghanistan-five-years-stability-under-threat.