Former U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross says the real obstacle stalling U.S.-Canada trade talks isn't the substance of what's on the table, it's how much Canadians have come to resent Washington. "The Canadians have adopted a very negative attitude toward the U.S. in general, and we can argue, is that justified? Is it not? It doesn't matter. There's been a real sea change [and] that's gonna be a complication because, almost independently of whatever proposal the U.S. might make, there's probably a political advantage to people in Canada who oppose it," Ross told Fortune's Eleanor Pringle in an exclusive interview.
That shift in sentiment has an obvious source. Canadian press reported last week on leaked audio of Vice President J.D. Vance at a private function mocking Prime Minister Mark Carney as both "sweet" and "hilarious," reportedly saying Carney "comes in and puffs his chest out and says, 'I'm going to, like, out-tough Donald Trump.'" Trump himself has kept up a parallel stream of insults aimed at Ottawa, repeatedly calling Canada the "51st state" and floating renaming Lake Ontario to "Lake America," the same rhetorical move he used against Mexico during earlier negotiations.
Ross argues the sovereignty needling is calculated rather than careless. "[Trump] sometimes speaks metaphorically, and I think what was at the core of the 51st state was another way of articulating Canada's dependence on the U.S.," he said. "Just mechanically, how would we ever do that? If you put it up for a plebiscite, at least at present, I don't think there's any chance the Canadian public would vote for it. Would you invade them? I don't see it." In his telling, the point isn't annexation, it's reminding Canada how much leverage the U.S. actually holds.
On substance, Ross says the two sides are still fighting over the same issues that have dogged the relationship for years: defense spending, dairy levies, and transshipment, the practice of routing Chinese imports through a third country like Canada to dodge U.S. tariffs. He believes Washington won't bend much further to close a deal, calling the offer already on the table "surprisingly favorable to Canada," and said any further movement would have to come from Ottawa. "I don't see the U.S. taking the initiative," Ross said. Carney's team sees it differently, describing its own approach as "pragmatic, patient, and persistent" and insisting "we have pursued every opportunity to reach an agreement."
What could ultimately force both sides back to the table, per Ross, is inflation rather than diplomacy. Both countries are dealing with elevated prices, driven in part by the Middle East conflict's disruption to oil supply, and Ross predicts Canada will feel the pressure to move first. "Their economy is so much smaller than ours," he said, framing Canada's economic exposure, not any change in political mood, as the likelier trigger for a breakthrough.